The United States has quietly moved significant military
reinforcements into the Gulf to deter the Iranian military from any
future attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz and to increase the number
of fighter jets able to strike deep into Iran if the standoff over its
nuclear program escalates.
The effort is part of a long-planned
effort to bolster the U.S. military presence in the Gulf, in part to
reassure Israel that, as a senior administration official put it last
week, "when the President says there are other options on the table
beyond negotiations, he means it."
But at a moment that the United
States and its allies are beginning to enforce a much broader embargo
on Iran's oil exports, meant to force Tehran to take seriously
negotiations over sharply limiting its nuclear program, the buildup
carries significant risks, including that Iran's powerful Revolutionary
Guard could decide to lash out against the increased presence.
The
most visible elements of this buildup are ships designed to enhance
vastly the ability to patrol the Strait of Hormuz and to reopen it
should Iran attempt to mine it to prevent Saudi Arabia and other oil
exporters from sending their tankers through.
The Navy has doubled
the number of minesweepers assigned to the region, to eight vessels, in
what military officers describe as a purely defensive move.
"The
message to Iran is, 'Don't even think about it,"' said a senior Defense
Department official. "Don't even think about closing the strait. We'll
clear the mines. Don't even think about sending your fast boats out to
harass our vessels or commercial shipping. We'll put them on the bottom
of the Gulf."
Over recent weeks, additional F-22 and F/A-18
warplanes have moved into two separate bases in the Gulf to bolster the
combat jets already in the region and the carrier strike groups that are
on constant tours. And the Navy, after a crash development program, has
moved a converted amphibious transport and docking ship, the Ponce,
into the Gulf to serve as the Pentagon's first floating staging base.
The
initial assignment for the Ponce, Pentagon officials say, is to serve
as a logistics and operations hub for clearing mines. But with a medical
suite and helicopter deck -- and bunks for combat troops -- the Ponce
could eventually be used as a base for Special Operations forces to
conduct a range of missions, including reconnaissance and
counterterrorism, all from international waters.
For President
Barack Obama, the combination of negotiations, new sanctions aimed at
Iran's oil revenue and increased military pressure is the latest test,
and perhaps the most vital one, of what the White House calls a
two-track policy against Iran. In the midst of a presidential election
campaign in which his presumed opponent, Mitt Romney, has accused Mr.
Obama of being "weak" in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue, his
goal is to project toughness without tipping into a crisis in the Gulf.
At
the same time he must signal support for Israel -- but not so much
support that the Israelis see the buildup as an opportunity to strike
Iranian nuclear facilities, an attack that Mr. Obama's team believes
could trigger a war without significantly setting back the Iranian
program.
A key motivation for the covert effort to undermine
Iran's enrichment capability with cyberattacks has been to demonstrate
to the Israelis that there are more effective ways to slow the program
than to strike from the air.
So far, there is little evidence that
the increased pressure is having the desired effect on Iran.
Negotiations are in stalemate, though a group of Iranian, American and
European experts are expected to meet in Istanbul on Tuesday to review a
recent U.S. proposal and Iranian response. Iran has strenuously
resisted all efforts to force it to give up enrichment of uranium.
U.S.
Defense Department officials emphasized that the recent reshaping of
forces in the Gulf region should not be viewed as solely about the
potential nuclear threat from Iran.
"This is not only about
Iranian nuclear ambitions, but about Iran's regional hegemonic
ambitions," the senior Defense Department official said. "This is a
complex array of American military power that is tangible proof to all
of our allies and partners and friends that even as the U.S. pivots
toward Asia, we remain vigilant across the Middle East."
While all
U.S. ground troops have been withdrawn from Iraq, a force equivalent to
an extra Army combat brigade has remained in Kuwait, officials said. It
could have many roles to contain regional instability, but Iran is a
primary concern.
"There's significant risk that as pressure
builds, the Iranian response could be to lash out," a military official
central to the effort said in the spring. "The buildup is designed to
reduce that risk. The Iranians are usually pretty rational actors, but
there is no guarantee."
While it always is difficult to read
Tehran's intentions, senior Navy officers have noted that Iranian ships
in the Gulf have recently refrained from provocative behavior.
"Things
have been, relatively speaking, quiet," said Adm. Jonathan W. Greenert,
the chief of naval operations, assessing actions by Iranian Navy
vessels over "the last couple of months."
But that was without the
pressure of the new sanctions; Iran is already exporting far less oil
every day than a year ago, about 1.5 million barrels a day versus 2.5
million before the gradual imposition of earlier sanctions.
While
Iranian vessels have avoided any confrontations with allied warships in
recent weeks, Iran expects to equip its ships in the Strait of Hormuz
soon with shorter-range missiles, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard
commander said Friday. The U.S. attack aircraft recently moved to the
region give the United States military additional capability against
those missile batteries.
Ali Fadavi, the commander, said Iran had
already equipped its vessels in the Gulf with missiles that could strike
targets at distances up to 220 kilometers, or 135 miles, and was
expecting to introduce new missiles with a range of 300 kilometers soon,
according to the semiofficial news agency Mehr
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